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Welcome to ECOSYS

UMR ECOSYS - Ecologie fonctionnelle et écotoxicologie des agroécosystèmes

Les impacts du climat futur sur l'agriculture - réponse du projet ANR CLIMATOR

Fait marquant 2010 de l'UMR EGC

N. Brisson, M.O. Bancal, R. Roche et B. Itier - 2010

Le projet ANR-VMC CLIMATOR a eu pour ambition d’estimer les conséquences des changements climatiques prévus par les modèles du GIEC sur le fonctionnement (phénologie, rendement, bilan environnemental) de quelques cultures et couverts végétaux représentatifs de l’espace rural français (cultures d’hiver et de printemps, irriguées ou pluviales, vigne, prairie, forêt,…) en différents points du territoire. Il a utilisé pour cela différents modèles agronomiques et a porté une attention particulière à la question des incertitudes et de la variabilité.

Les résultats montrent que le changement climatique aura des conséquences fort diverses selon les systèmes de culture, porteur selon les cas de dangers ou d’opportunités. L’augmentation des températures aura pour conséquence première la réduction des cycles phénologiques, ce qui conduira à une anticipation des stades. Les conséquences seront plus fortes pour les cultures de printemps et les plantes pérennes dont une bonne partie du cycle est situé après le maximum thermique annuel. Pour ces cultures, le raccourcissement du cycle accentuera l’effet des changements de température. Il en résultera une baisse du rendement potentiel que seul le choix de variétés tardives pourra compenser, à condition que la ressource en eau ne fasse pas défaut. Cette dernière condition sera le facteur limitant qui caractérisera la différence danger/opportunité entre régions. Globalement les régions nordiques verront se présenter des opportunités (maïs, vigne) tandis que le grand sud-ouest verra les
difficultés s’accumuler (irrigation du maïs, baisse du rendement forestier, problème de qualité du raisin). Les travaux de CLIMATOR ont été utilisés pour la réalisation du plan « CLIMAT » du MAP.

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