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Tuesday, December 14th  2021

Léa Crépin (Economie Publique - AgroParisTech) will present "Do forest conservation policies undermine the soybean sector in the Brazilian Amazon ? Evidence from the blacklisting of municipalities".

Abstract: 

Minimizing the trade-offs between agricultural production, development and forest conservation is key to insure that conservation policies can achieve long-term impacts. Taking the case of the Brazilian Amazon, we estimate the impact of the blacklisting of municipalities with high deforestation risk on soybean production (a major driver of deforestation), exports and land use changes. Difference-in-difference regressions and matching techniques are first used to determine the impacts of the policy. Triple differences are then applied to explore heterogeneity in land use responses across municipalities. We find that, although effective to reduce deforestation, the policy is unlikely to have undermined the soybean production and exports. On the contrary, our results suggest that the soybean sector benefited from the changes in land use following the implementation of the blacklist. However, we do not find evidence that land restriction entailed triggered intensification of soybean, which suggest that the soybean sector benefited from intra crops reallocation.